Electoral-Vote.com, August 1, 2008
The conventions month begins with Democrat Barack Obama holding a 316-198 lead in the electoral college count with Missouri and Virginia (for a total of 24 votes) up for grabs. Since yesterday, the donkey party has picked up Florida’s 27 electoral votes.
Obviously, versus 2004, the Democrats have gained electoral votes. According to the latest count, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico have gone blue versus 2004. This is a switch of 64 electoral votes and add to that the 24 votes up for grabs mentioned above. Let’s assume that Iowa and New Mexico are gone to the Democrats. No polls recently have had John McCain anywhere close to Obama, so those 12 votes are blue. Also assume that the very-red Indiana is actually going to remain so, despite the fact that the state boarders Obama’s Illinois.
Plus, can the Democrats confidently assume that Florida is going to turn blue this year? Perhaps not.
Added together, we have Obama with at least 264 electoral votes, McCain with 236 with Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia as true tossups (38 votes). Of those, Obama would simply need Nevada and one other, or simply one of the other three to win the election.
Three months to go…
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