Reagan Democrats Coming Home…to the GOP
Updated: Rasmussen now has John McCain ahead, for the first time since June 3.
When the Democratic primary ended in early June, the media spent a great deal of time and effort discussing Barack Obama’s attempts to ‘bring home’ the Hillary Clinton primary voters. At the time, the natural inclination was that, in time, most of these voters would return to the DNC fold and vote for the junior Senator from Illinois. After all, the thinking went, these voters in these times of economic uncertainly would certainly vote Democratic and not for the Republican Party, again. How could they, the question was asked? Of course they won’t, the answer followed.
Notice the tongue in the cheek.
The media, of course, has missed it again, by focusing more on their own desires, and less on who those Clinton voters are, the so-called Reagan Democrats.
These are those white, blue-collar, beer-drinking, socially conservative voters that aren’t simply looking for ‘change’ for the sake of a nice campaign slogan. Rather, they are looking for a candidate that – wait for it – looks a lot like them, or perhaps more specifically, doesn’t look down at them.
And, racist or not, and I’d say certainly not, that candidate is looking more like John McCain, and not the self-appointed secular messiah, Barack Obama.
These Reagan Democrats voted for Hillary Clinton this past spring not so much because they liked the New York Senator, but because they absolutely disliked Barack Obama, and his latte-totting message and international look. And with Obama on top of the DNC ticket, it is unlikely that these Reagan Democrats will return to the DNC fold for the first time since 1996, no matter how much ‘the world is falling apart’ spin is put out there by the main stream media.
In a year such as this, the Democrats should be coasting to election. After all, the last time a party won the White House in three elections in a row was in 1988, and prior to that, it hadn’t happened since FDR’s days. Heading into the convention season, a generic Democratic candidate should be at least seventeen points ahead of his GOP opponent (the margin separating the lackluster Michael Dukakis and the eventual winner, George H. W. Bush in 1988), but instead Barack Obama is ahead by just 1 point in the latest Gallup poll.
With the exclusion of 1992, since at least 1976, the GOP candidate – regardless of the eventual outcome – has always gained from his August numbers. Therefore, if history is any guide, John McCain should gain between now and November, and thanks to those Reagan Democrats, gain just enough to win the election.
Of course Obama could stop the slide and name someone that looks more like ‘us’ as Vice President, but voters rarely vote based on the #2 pick. Or he could go abroad and become ‘presidential’ and puff up his numbers. Oh, right, he’s already done that and it did nothing to his overall numbers, except give the McCain camp enough footage to create two brilliant ads that seem to be working at tearing down the Obama team.
Quite frankly, it seems, there is very little that Obama and the Democrats can do, except hope that 2008 is a copy of 1992.
But then, they had Bubba, and more importantly perhaps, they also had Ross Perot. What they have this year – a ‘Democratic’ year – is a candidate devoid of new ideas that yes, looks very different, versus a candidate that despite his many flaws is more comfortable to look at, and someone that many can relate to – John McCain.
Ted Tally is a writer living in Las Vegas, NV and not the Academy Award winning playwright and screenwriter.
Popularity: 30% [?]
Related Posts
1 Trackback(s)
Post a Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.
