“Swing States”: Nevada

Through springtime, the GOPNation.com will look at the shifting winds in the 2008 presidential election campaign by analyzing the swing states that include Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin. These 18 states total 215 electoral votes.

Note: Barring significant changes to the current electoral trends, we are assuming that the Democrats will start off the 2008 general election with 174 safe electoral votes, with the Republicans with 149.

Nevada

Nevada gained statehood in October 1864, one of two states to join the Union during the Civil War. In the 1864 election, Nevada ended up with an anomalous two electoral votes, when the third elector was snowbound. Since the new state’s legislature had not yet convened, there was no mechanism to select a replacement. The state had three electoral votes through 1980. The population of the Silver State has more than tripled since 1980, bringing its number of electoral votes to five. That figure may rise to six in the 2012 contest, pending the result of the 2010 census. Although Republicans have won eight of the last 10 elections here, the influx of population has put Nevada squarely into the swing state category. In 2004, Nevadans voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a margin of 51% to 48%.

(Source: 270towin.com)

Our Analysis

While we feel that this state will become blue this year, this has less to do with a general election trend than a slight movement within this state to the Dems that has slowly been happening over the course of the past few years.

TREND: Democrat (Gain from 2004)

Popularity: 20% [?]

Related Posts

• June 6, 2008 -- “Swing States”: Missouri and Ohio
• June 5, 2008 -- “Swing States”: Arkansas and Connecticut
• June 3, 2008 -- “Swing States”: Iowa
• May 31, 2008 -- “Swing States”: Kentucky
• May 30, 2008 -- “Swing States”: Colorado