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Presidential?

by Ted Tally

Sure, the New Hampshire primary for 2012 is still nearly thirty months away, but it makes no difference, since we’re ready to make this prediction:

The GOP nominee for president in 2012 will be one of these five would-be candidates: Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush or Michael Huckabee.

Consider Gingrich vs. Huckabee the ultimate flip of a coin in this sense: if one jumps into the primary race, the other will remain on the sidelines.  Both are trying their best to charm the same interest groups and both sound similar on the talk show circuit. Still, Huckabee could be Gingrich without the hassle.  Of course, the former Arkansas governor might decide that hosting his own talk show is best,  at least for 2012.

Haley Barbour is sitting pretty.  While other would-be challengers fall by the wayside (Mark Sanford, for one), Barbour remains a popular second-term governor in his native Mississippi.  With visits to campaign for GOP gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia on the horizon, one of the architects of the GOP’s 1994 resurgence could be setting another path to party redemption which could be well-rewarded in 2012.  Barbour’s two weaknesses are this:  his past as a heavy-hitting lobbyist, and the fact that Mississippi isn’t exactly a traditional starting point for a presidential run (no one from the state has been elected to the nation’s highest office.)  Still, if voters find Obama’s liberalism really distasteful come ‘12, a return to traditional political values might make Harbour just the guy to take on the president.

Mitt Romney – like Barbour – continues to look stronger, as other GOPers fizzle out.  While finishing second to John McCain in ‘08 might be cause for concern, the former Massachusetts governor’s is increasingly becoming the go-to guy when people want to talk to Mr. Republican.  Still, 2012 is a long way off.

And then there is Jeb Bush, who’s political future is still largely determined by the popularity (or lack thereof) of the Bush brand.  As long as the majority of Americans view the George W. Bush era with distain versus that of Barack Obama, Jeb will remain on the sideline.  However, if Obama’s numbers begin looking like those of another Bush when he faced reelection (think George H.W. Bush), Jeb might be just the ticket.

Who has the edge?  Perhaps Romney, followed by Barbour.  Perhaps.

Ted Tally is a writer living in Las Vegas. He should not be confused with the Academy-Award winning screen-writer by the same name.