Polls: October 31, 2008
Oct 31st, 2008 | By gopnation | Category: BreakingOctober 31, 2008 - With just three days of polling ahead of us, Barack Obama has taken a 6.2 percent lead over John McCain in our latest polling average.
GOPNation.com Average: Obama 50.0, McCain 43.8
Time slipping away
Through Election Eve will also be averaging the five polls less the two that show the largest and smallest Obama lead, as another read on this election.
Revised GOPNation.com Average: Obama 49, McCain 43.0
Components of GOPNation Average, October 31, 2008:
Battleground Poll…49-45, McCain loses one.
Rasmussen Daily Tracking..51-47, McCain gains 1
Reuters/Zogby…50-43 no change
Gallup Daily Tracking**…52-44, Obama gains 2
Diageo / Hotline Tracking…48-41, McCain drops one.
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** Beginning Monday, October 13, 2008 we began using an average of Gallup’s two new Likely Voter models. The first, according to Gallup:
is based on Gallup’s traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents’ likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior.
The second:
is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents’ current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election).
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