Polls: October 30, 2008
Oct 30th, 2008 | By gopnation | Category: BreakingOctober 30, 2008 - With just four days of polling to go before real voters cast their ballots, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain. Today, the Illinois Democrat recovered 0.8 points from yesterday, and records his best numbers in three days.
GOPNation.com Average: Obama 49.8, McCain 44.4.
Through Election Eve will also be averaging the five polls less the two that show the largest and smallest Obama lead, as another read on this election.
Revised GOPNation.com Average: Obama 50.0, McCain 44.3
Components of GOPNation Average, October 30, 2008:
Battleground Poll…49-46, no change
Rasmussen Daily Tracking..51-46, McCain loses 2.
Reuters/Zogby…50-43, McCain loses 2.
Gallup Daily Tracking**…51-45, McCain loses 1.
Diageo / Hotline Tracking…48-42, Obama down one.
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** Beginning Monday, October 13, 2008 we began using an average of Gallup’s two new Likely Voter models. The first, according to Gallup:
is based on Gallup’s traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents’ likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior.
The second:
is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents’ current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election).
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