“Swing States”: Arkansas and Connecticut
Jun 5th, 2008 | By gopnation | Category: BreakingThrough springtime, the GOPNation.com will look at the shifting winds in the 2008 presidential election campaign by analyzing the swing states that include Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin. These 18 states total 215 electoral votes.
Note: Barring significant changes to the current electoral trends, we are assuming that the Democrats will start off the 2008 general election with 174 safe electoral votes, with the Republicans with 149.
Arkansas
Arkansas joined the Union as the 25th state in June 1836. The state seceded during the Civil War and did not participate in the 1864 election. The state’s electoral votes were rejected in 1872 due to irregularities. Arkansas voted Democratic over a span of 23 consecutive elections from Reconstruction until 1964. Like many southern states, this changed with opposition to civil rights legislation. In 1968, the state sided with third-party candidate George Wallace. Since then, it has gone Republican in six of nine elections, voting Democratic twice for fellow Arkansan Bill Clinton and once for Jimmy Carter. In 2004, George Bush overcame John Kerry by a 54% to 44% margin. While Arkansas continues to lean Republican for presidential contests, both U.S. senators and the governor are Democrats.
(Source: 270towin.com)
Our Analysis
With Hillary Clinton no longer in contention for the presidency, it looks like this state will remain red.
TREND: Republican (Retain from 2004)
Connecticut
Connecticut, one of the 13 original colonies, joined the Union in January 1788 and has participated in all 55 presidential elections. The state maintained eight electoral votes from the 1930s through 2000, but dropped back to seven in 2004. Although voting Democratic in the last four elections, the prior five were won by Republicans, with Democrats taking the three before that. This pattern indicates that, while not “officially” considered a swing state, Connecticut could be in play for the Republicans. In 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by about 10% here.
(Source: 270towin.com)
Our Analysis
John McCain could be just the right candidate to bring this solidly blue state into the GOP fold in 2008. However, political gamblers would be wise to put most of their money on blue, again.
TREND: Democrat (Retain from 2004)
[...] winds in the 2008 presidential election campaign by analyzing the swing states that include Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New [...]